Testing against stochastic trend and seasonality in the presence of unattended breaks and unit roots

This paper considers the problem of testing against stochastic trend and seasonality in the presence of structural breaks and unit roots at frequencies other than those directly under test, which we term unattended breaks and unattended unit roots respectively. We show that under unattended breaks the true size of the Kwiatkowski et. al. (1992) [KPSS] test at frequency zero and the Canova and Hansen (1995) [CH] test at the seasonal frequencies fall well below the nominal level under the null with an associated, often very dramatic, loss of power under the alternative. We demonstrate that a simple modification of the statistics can recover the usual limiting distribution appropriate to the case where there are no breaks, provided unit roots do not exist at any of the unattended frequencies. Where unattended unit roots occur we show that the above statistics converge in probability to zero under the null. However, computing the KPSS and CH statistics after pre-filtering the data is simultaneously efficacious against both unattended breaks and unattended unit roots, in the sense that the statistics retain their usual pivotal limiting null distributions appropriate to the case where neither occurs. The case where breaks may potentially occur at all frequencies is also discussed. The practical relevance of the theoretical contribution of the paper is illustrated through a number of empirical examples.stationarity tests, structural breaks, pre-filtering, unattended unit roots

Common faith or parting ways? A time varying parameters factor analysis of euro-area inflation

We analyze the interaction among the common and country specific components for the inflation rates in twelve euro area countries through a factor model with time varying parameters. The variation of the model parameters is driven by the score of the predictive likelihood, so that, conditionally on past data, the model is Gaussian and the likelihood function can be evaluated using the Kalman filter. The empirical analysis uncovers significant variation over time in the model parameters. We find that, over an extended time period, inflation persistence has fallen over time and the importance of common shocks has increased relatively to the idiosyncratic disturbances. According to the model, the fall in inflation observed since the sovereign debt crisis, is broadly a common phenomenon, since no significant cross country inflation differentials have emerged. Stressed countries, however, have been hit by unusually large shocks

Determination of sixteen polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in aqueous and solid samples from an Italian wastewater treatment plant

This study addresses the issue of whether it is possible to accurately predict the removalefficiencies of metals of environmental concern (i.e., Al, Ag, As, B, Ba, Cd, Cr, Fe, Mn, Hg, Ni,Pb, Cu, V, and Zn) in a wastewater treatment plant. The plant in question (at Fusina, Venice,Italy) is fed by mixed wastes from municipal and industrial sources (300 000 equivalentinhabitants) and discharges the treated effluent into the Venice lagoon. The year-long samplingcampaign (2001-2002) yielded a substantial amount of analytical data and relatively wide rangesof concentrations of metals in the influent samples, which made it possible to study the removalefficiencies by plotting the terms (inlet concentration - outlet concentration) vs (inlet concentration)for each metal investigated. The data in the plots were fitted using the linear regressionmodel Y ) BX. The slope rates (terms B), which were estimated by the least-squares method,have been adopted as the removal efficiencies, and they can be considered as constants in theconcentration ranges recorded in this work. The relative abundance of metals in the rawwastewaters feeding Fusina WWTP followed the order Al > Fe > B > Zn > Ba > Mn > Cu >Pb > Hg ) Ni > Cr ) As > V > Ag > Cd, while in the effluent the order was Fe > Al > Zn >Mn > Ba > Ni > Cu > Pb > Cr > Ag > As > Hg ) V > Cd. The removal percentages (%) of themetals were Al ) 92 ( 1; Ag ) 94 ( 1; As ) 76 ( 3; B ) n.d.; Ba ) 85 ( 2; Cd ) 85 ( 2; Cr )87 ( 1; Fe ) 90 ( 1; Mn ) 61 ( 2; Hg ) 93 ( 1; Ni ) 50 ( 3; Pb ) 92 ( 1; Cu ) 93 ( 1; V )74 ( 2; and Zn ) 75 ( 3

Osservazioni sul paradigma dei learning object

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Behaviour and fate of nine recycled water trace organics during managed aquifer recharge in an aerobic aquifer

The fate of nine trace organic compounds was evaluated during a 12 month large-scale laboratory column experiment. The columns were packed with aquifer sediment and evaluated under natural aerobic and artificial anaerobic geochemical conditions, to assess the potential for natural attenuation of these compounds during aquifer passage associated with managed aquifer recharge (MAR). The nine trace organic compounds were bisphenol A (BPA), 17β-estradiol (E2), 17α-ethynylestradiol (EE2), N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA), N-nitrosomorpholine (NMOR), carbamazepine, oxazepam, iohexol and iodipamide. In the loworganic carbon content Spearwood sediment, all trace organicswere non-retardedwith retardation coefficients between 1.0 and 1.2, indicating that these compounds would travel at near groundwater velocities within the aquifer. The natural aerobic geochemical conditions provided a suitable environment for the rapid degradation for BPA, E2, iohexol (half life b1 day). Lag-times for the start of degradation of these compounds ranged from b15 to 30 days. While iodipamide was persistent under aerobic conditions, artificial reductive geochemical conditions promoted via the addition of ethanol, resulted in rapid degradation (half life b1 days). Pharmaceuticals (carbamazepine and oxazepam) and disinfection by-products (NDMA and NMOR) did not degrade under either aerobic or anaerobic aquifer geochemical conditions (half life N50 days). Field-based validation experiments with carbamazepine and oxazepam also showed no degradation. If persistent trace organics are present in recycled waters at concentrations in excess of their intended use, natural attenuation during aquifer passage alonemay not result in extracted watermeeting regulatory requirements. Additional pre treatment of the recycled water would therefore be required

Testing stock market convergence: a non-linear factor approach

This paper applies the Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007) method to test for convergence in stock returns to an extensive dataset including monthly stock price indices for five EU countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and the UK) as well as the US between 1973 and 2008. We carry out the analysis on both sectors and individual industries within sectors. As a first step, we use the Stock and Watson (J Am Stat Assoc 93(441):349–358, 1998) procedure to filter the data in order to extract the long-run component of the series; then, following Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771–1855, 2007), we estimate the relative transition parameters. In the case of sectoral indices we find convergence in the middle of the sample period, followed by divergence, and detect four (two large and two small) clusters. The analysis at a disaggregate, industry level again points to convergence in the middle of the sample, and subsequent divergence, but a much larger number of clusters is now found. Splitting the cross-section into two subgroups including euro area countries, the UK and the US respectively, provides evidence of a global convergence/divergence process not obviously influenced by EU policies

Parasitosis internas de los ovinos en la prov. de La Pampa

The presence of helminths in the gastrointestinal tract, lung8 and liver of eighty 3 to 8 month old lambs were studied from September 1983 to October 1984. The goal was to determine the prevalence and abundance of regional parasite species. The samples were obtained from Sta Rosa slaughter (Frical S.A.). Sheep were brought from the departments of Capital, Toay, Atreucó, Guatraché, Catrlló, Utracán y Conhelo. The helminths recovered and their respective prevalence were as follow: Haemonchus contortus, 73.8%; Nematodirul spp, 64.6% (N. spathiger, N. oiratianus y N. abnormalis); Trichuris ovis, 58.4%; Trichostrongylus colubriformis, 46,1%; T. vitrinus, 20%; T. axei, 44.6%; 4.6%; C. curticei, 1.5%; -Oesopha Rostomum spp, 26.1 % lº'-.. vanulosum 66%, O. columbianum 34%); Chabartia ovina, 16.9%; Taladorlagia circumcincta, 4.6%; Dictyocaulus spp, 10.7%; Cysticercus tanuicollia, 30.7%; Monlezia axpanza 7.6%; M. banadani, 1.5%; M. denticulata, 1.5%; Thysanoloma actinoidas, 3%; Echinococcus granuloaus, 3%. The most important species for Heap production was Haemonchus, being mora prevalent from mid-January to mid-May. Grater Laval wara seen during sarly autumn.Desde septiembre de 1983 hasta octubre de 1984 se estudiaron las cargas de helmintos en el contenido del tracto gastrointestinal, pulmón e hígado de 80 corderos de 3 a 8 meses de edad en general. La finalidad fue determinar prevalencia y abundancia de especies parásitas en la región. Los organos se obtuvieron de corderos faenados en el frigorífico de Sta Rosa, Frical S.A. Los ovinos provenían de los departamentos Capital, Toay, Atreucó, Guatraché, Catriló, Utracén y Conhelo. Los helmlntos observados y su prevalencia anual respectiva fueron los siguientes: Haemonchus contortus, 73.8%; Nematodirus spp, 64.6% (N. spathiger, N. oiratianus y N. abnormali); Trichuris ovis, 58.4%; Trichostrongylus colubriformis, 46,1%; T. vitrinua, 20%; T. axei, 44.6%; Ostertagia ostertagi, 43%; Q. Iyrata, 9.2%; Cooperia oncophora, 29.2%; C. punctata, 4.6%; C. curticeí. 1.5%; Oesophagostomum app, 26.1 % (O. venulosum 66%, O. columbianum 34%); Chabertia ovina, 16.9%; Teladorsagia circumcincta, 4.6%; Dictyocaulus spp, 10.7%; Cystícercus tenuicollis, 30.7%; Moniezia expanza 7':6%; M. benedeni, 1.5%; M. denticulata, 1.5%; Thysanosoma actinoides, 3%; Echinococcus granulosus, 3%. De acuerdo a su prevalencia y patogenicidad la especie más importante para la producción ovina fué Haemonchus contortus y su mayor prevalencia se registró de enero a mediados de mayo

Validation of Dual Membrane Treatment for Indirect Potable Reuse

The Western Australia's Premier's Collaborative Research Program (PCRP) project 'Characterising Treated Wastewater for Drinking Purposes Following Reverse Osmosis Treatment' commenced in October 2005, to determine the potential risks of replenishing drinking water aquifers with MF/RO treated secondary wastewater from Perth?s wastewater treatment plants. A brief report on the project won the Michael Flynn Award for the best poster paper at Ozwater 10. The results included those published in Water, February 2010, by Rodriguez et al, entitled Efficiency of RO for removal of Chemical Contaminants. Consequently, this version has been drafted to cover the other aspects of the study, principally the identification of suitable indicators which could be used to validate treatment performance

The 10 Meter South Pole Telescope

The South Pole Telescope (SPT) is a 10 m diameter, wide-field, offset Gregorian telescope with a 966-pixel, multi-color, millimeter-wave, bolometer camera. It is located at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole station in Antarctica. The design of the SPT emphasizes careful control of spillover and scattering, to minimize noise and false signals due to ground pickup. The key initial project is a large-area survey at wavelengths of 3, 2 and 1.3 mm, to detect clusters of galaxies via the Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect and to measure the small-scale angular power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The data will be used to characterize the primordial matter power spectrum and to place constraints on the equation of state of dark energy. A second-generation camera will measure the polarization of the CMB, potentially leading to constraints on the neutrino mass and the energy scale of inflation.Comment: 47 pages, 14 figures, updated to match version to be published in PASP 123 903 (May, 2011

Trace analysis of environmental matrices by large-volume injection and liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry

The time-honored convention of concentrating aqueous samples by solid-phase extraction (SPE) is being challenged by the increasingly widespread use of large-volume injection (LVI) liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry (LC–MS) for the determination of traces of polar organic contaminants in environmental samples. Although different LVI approaches have been proposed over the last 40 years, the simplest and most popular way of performing LVI is known as single-column LVI (SC-LVI), in which a large-volume of an aqueous sample is directly injected into an analytical column. For the purposes of this critical review, LVI is defined as an injected sample volume that is ≥10% of the void volume of the analytical column. Compared with other techniques, SC-LVI is easier to set up, because it requires only small hardware modifications to existing autosamplers and, thus, it will be the main focus of this review. Although not new, SC-LVI is gaining acceptance and the approach is emerging as a technique that will render SPE nearly obsolete for many environmental applications.In this review, we discuss: the history and development of various forms of LVI; the critical factors that must be considered when creating and optimizing SC-LVI methods; and typical applications that demonstrate the range of environmental matrices to which LVI is applicable, for example drinking water, groundwater, and surface water including seawater and wastewater. Furthermore, we indicate direction and areas that must be addressed to fully delineate the limits of SC-LVI